Won 1-0 Last Time Out: Which Correct Scores Follow Next Game?
Across 42,404 games after a 1-0 win, the repeat 1-0 came up slightly more often than the next price implied. The edge is small, venue-driven and worth knowing.
Written by Connor WhitfieldCorrect score specialistWhen a club wins 1-0, what are the exact scores of its next league game, and does a 1-0 come up more often than the next price suggests?
League matches in 22 European divisions 2000/01-2025/26 (183,724 matches) and 16 leagues outside Europe 2012-2024 (53,924 matches); each club's game linked to its next league game of the same season
- 110.0%Next game won 1-0 again
- 29.3%Price-matched expected 1-0 win
- 310.00Fair odds of a repeat 1-0
- 421.1%Next game won to nil
Bettors love a narrative, and the 1-0 win carries one of the strongest: tight, disciplined, a side that knows how to grind. So when a club wins 1-0, does its next league game lean towards another 1-0, or does the market already price that in? I linked each 1-0 win to the club's next league game across 22 European divisions and 16 leagues outside Europe. This is the kind of groundwork that sits behind my free football predictions page.
The headline answer: the next game ended in another 1-0 win 10.0% of the time, against a price-matched expectation of 9.3%. That gap of +0.7 points clears its 95% range of ยฑ0.3 points, so it is a real tilt, but a modest one. The fuller story is a slight lean towards low scores and clean sheets, and a much bigger effect from where the next game is played.
Aftermath ยท 01Repeat 1-0 and 0-0 run slightly above expectation
This chart sets each common next-game scoreline against what the next fixture's league, venue and win-price band suggested. Scores read from the club's side. The two that stand out are the repeat 1-0 win at 10.0% against 9.3%, and the 0-0 at 8.7% against 8.0%. Both sit above the expected marker by more than the range around them.
Everything else hugs its baseline. The 1-1 is the most common next score at 12.6% against 12.3%, and the 0-1 defeat lands at 9.3% against 9.2%. The higher-scoring results lean the other way: the 2-1 win came in at 7.7% against 7.9%, and the 1-2 defeat at 7.5% against 7.7%.
View the data: after a 1-0 win: next-game scores vs expected
| Expected | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew 1-1 | 12.3% | 12.6% | ยฑ0.3 |
| Won 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.0% | ยฑ0.3 |
| Lost 0-1 | 9.2% | 9.3% | ยฑ0.3 |
| Drew 0-0 | 8.0% | 8.7% | ยฑ0.3 |
| Won 2-1 | 7.9% | 7.7% | ยฑ0.3 |
| Lost 1-2 | 7.7% | 7.5% | ยฑ0.3 |
| Won 2-0 | 6.3% | 6.2% | ยฑ0.2 |
| Lost 0-2 | 6.0% | 6.2% | ยฑ0.2 |
My read is simple. The primary market tilt after a 1-0 win is towards low scoring, not towards the club winning more. That is exactly the order I work in: settle the game flow first, then pick the scoreline that fits it.
Aftermath ยท 02The 1-0 repeat is strongest straight after a 1-0
Does any win breed a 1-0 next time, or is it specific to the 1-0 itself? Here the share of next games won exactly 1-0 is split by the previous result. After a 1-0 win it is 10.0%; after a 2-0 win it is 9.5%, and after a 2-1 win or a win to nil by three or more it is 9.3%.
The price-matched expectations in the note matter more than the raw bars. After a 2-0 win the expected rate was 9.4%, after a 2-1 win 9.2%, and after a bigger win to nil 9.5%, so those sit almost exactly on price. After a draw it was 9.2% against 9.1%, after a defeat 8.8% against 8.9%. Only the 1-0 trigger shows a gap of any size.
Price-matched expected: a 1-0 win 9.3%, a 2-0 win 9.4%, a 2-1 win 9.2%, a 3-0 or bigger win to nil 9.5%, a draw 9.1%, a defeat 8.9%.
View the data: next game won 1-0, by the last result
| Share of next games the club won exactly 1-0 | |
|---|---|
| After a 1-0 win | 10.0% |
| After a 2-0 win | 9.5% |
| After a 2-1 win | 9.3% |
| After a 3-0 or bigger win to nil | 9.3% |
| After a draw | 9.2% |
| After a defeat | 8.8% |
That tells me the effect is about the style the 1-0 reflects, not about winning momentum. A side that won 2-0 is not more likely to repeat a narrow win than its price says.
Aftermath ยท 03After a 1-0 win, clean sheets edge up and defeats edge down
Grouping the results shows the shape behind the scorelines. After a 1-0 win, clubs won the next game to nil 21.1% of the time, won while conceding 16.3%, drew 27.0% and lost 35.6%. Across all games the split was 20.1%, 16.6%, 26.5% and 36.8%.
So the 1-0 winners win to nil a little more, concede in wins a little less and draw slightly more. The clean sheet figure confirms it: 29.8% in the next game against 28.6% expected. After a 2-0 win the won-to-nil share is 21.8%, but the won-conceding share also rises to 17.2%, which is a more open profile.
View the data: next-game score groups after a 1-0 win
| Won to nil | Won, conceded | Drew | Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| After a 1-0 win | 21.1% | 16.3% | 27.0% | 35.6% |
| After a 2-0 win | 21.8% | 17.2% | 26.8% | 34.2% |
| After any win | 21.4% | 17.5% | 26.6% | 34.5% |
| Any game | 20.1% | 16.6% | 26.5% | 36.8% |
Raw group splits do not adjust for the strength of the side, so I treat these as colour. The clean sheet gap is the price-matched number I lean on.
Aftermath ยท 04Venue swings the repeat 1-0 far more than form
This is the table I would keep open. When the next game after a 1-0 win was at home, it ended 1-0 to the club 11.6% of the time, fair odds 8.62. Away it was 8.6%, fair odds 11.63. That venue split is far larger than the trigger effect itself.
Draws barely move with venue: the 1-1 sits at 12.6% at home and 12.5% away, fair odds 7.94 and 8.00, and the 0-0 at 8.6% and 8.7%. Away, the 0-1 defeat at 10.8%, fair odds 9.26, actually outranks the 1-0 win.
| Next score | Next at home | Fair odds | Next away | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Won 1-0 | 11.6% | 8.62 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| Won 2-0 | 7.9% | 12.66 | 4.8% | 20.83 |
| Won 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.87 | 6.5% | 15.38 |
| Drew 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.94 | 12.5% | 8.00 |
| Drew 0-0 | 8.6% | 11.63 | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| Lost 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.33 | 10.8% | 9.26 |
| Lost 1-2 | 6.2% | 16.13 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
Next game at home: 18,908 games; away: 23,496 games.
The main caveat applies here: this is a pattern in past results, not a system, and the expectation comes from 1X2 prices rather than correct-score markets. Compare any price you see with these fair odds before you trust the edge.
What happens next
- Back low scores first
After a 1-0 win the 1-0 and 0-0 both ran above expectation, at 10.0% and 8.7%. Start with a low-scoring read, then choose the scoreline.
- Split by venue immediately
A home 1-0 repeat came up 11.6% (fair odds 8.62) against 8.6% away (fair odds 11.63). Away, the 0-1 at 10.8% deserves as much thought as the 1-0.
- Ignore bigger-win momentum
After a 2-0 win the next 1-0 was 9.5% against 9.4% expected, essentially on price. The tilt belongs to the 1-0 trigger, not to winning in general.
Questions bettors ask
How often does a team win 1-0 again after a 1-0 win?
Across 42,404 games, the next league game ended in another 1-0 win 10.0% of the time, which is fair odds of 10.00. The price-matched expectation was 9.3%.
What is the most common next score after a 1-0 win?
The 1-1 draw, at 12.6% against 12.3% expected. It barely changes with venue, at 12.6% at home and 12.5% away.
Do teams keep a clean sheet after winning 1-0?
Slightly more often than the price suggests: 29.8% kept a clean sheet in the next game against 28.6% expected. They won the next game to nil 21.1% of the time.
I specialise in correct score predictions, focusing on the goal patterns and matchup dynamics that turn likely scorelines into realistic betting calls.
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