After an NHL Upset: How Favourites and Underdogs Do Next Game
Across 6,769 NHL upsets, neither the stung favourite nor the giddy underdog strays far from its rating forecast next time out. The venue split is where the small edges hide.
Written by Erik LindqvistIce hockey analystAfter an NHL favourite loses or an underdog wins, how does each side do in its next game compared with its rating forecast?
NHL regular season 2005-06 to 2024-25, 47,368 team-games with a next game
- 154.5%Next-game win % for 60%+ favourites who lost
- 245.3%Next-game win % for sub-40% underdogs who won
- 3โ0.3 pointsUnderdog winners vs forecast next game
- 46,769Upset results tracked
Every hockey bettor knows the feeling after an upset. The favourite that lost looks like a bounce-back play, and the underdog that won looks like it has found something. I wanted to know whether either story holds up, so I tracked every regular-season upset from 2005-06 to 2024-25 and checked how each side did in its very next game against its rating forecast.
The headline answer is flat. Favourites priced at 60%+ who lost won 54.5% of their next games, against a forecast of 54.5%. Underdogs under 40% who won took 45.3% next time, against a forecast of 45.6%. One upset, on its own, tells you almost nothing the ratings have not already absorbed. That is the same principle that runs through my NHL betting tips page: start with goaltending and form, not with last night's scoreline.
Aftermath ยท 01Beaten favourites land almost exactly on their forecast
This chart splits the favourites who lost by how strongly the ratings rated them in the upset, then sets their next-game forecast against what they actually did. The biggest gap sits in the 55-60% band, where beaten teams won 53.2% next time against a forecast of 51.4%, across 2,970 games. That is the only band where the actual result edges clear of the forecast, and even there the range is ยฑ1.8 points.
Higher up, the dots nearly overlap. The 60-65% losers won 53.4% against 53.5%, and the 65-70% group won 56.2% against 55.2%. The heaviest favourites, at 70%+, won 56.2% against a forecast of 57.9%, but on only 379 games with a range of ยฑ5.0 points.
View the data: favourites who lost: next-game win %
| Forecast | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lost at 55-60% (2,970 games, gap +1.8) | 51.4% | 53.2% | ยฑ1.8 |
| Lost at 60-65% (2,041 games, gap โ0.1) | 53.5% | 53.4% | ยฑ2.2 |
| Lost at 65-70% (967 games, gap +1.0) | 55.2% | 56.2% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Lost at 70%+ (379 games, gap โ1.7) | 57.9% | 56.2% | ยฑ5 |
What I take from this: the bounce-back instinct is already in the number. If anything, the mild favourites who lose are the group I would look at more closely, not the elite teams.
Aftermath ยท 02Upset winners mostly drift back to their rating
The same view for underdogs who won. In the middle bands there is nothing to see: the 30-35% winners took 44.3% of their next games against a forecast of 44.4%, and the 35-40% group sat at 47.1% on both counts across 2,041 games.
The edges are where it gets interesting. Long shots under 30% who won took only 37.7% next time against a forecast of 40.6%, on 377 games. The 40-45% winners, the closest thing to coin-flip upsets, won 47.2% against 48.5% across 2,973 games.
View the data: underdogs who won: next-game win %
| Forecast | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Won at Under 30% (377 games, gap โ2.9) | 40.6% | 37.7% | ยฑ4.9 |
| Won at 30-35% (964 games, gap โ0.1) | 44.4% | 44.3% | ยฑ3.1 |
| Won at 35-40% (2,041 games, gap 0.0) | 47.1% | 47.1% | ยฑ2.2 |
| Won at 40-45% (2,973 games, gap โ1.3) | 48.5% | 47.2% | ยฑ1.8 |
The direction is consistent: underdog winners tend to come in slightly under their forecast, never clearly over it. The upset is usually goaltending or a hot power play night, and neither travels reliably into the next game.
Aftermath ยท 03Upsets and expected results leave similar small footprints
Here I put the gap after an upset next to the gap after the expected result in the same band. If upsets carried real momentum or a real hangover, the two bars would split cleanly. Mostly they do not. Favourites at 60-65% who won were +1.9 points next time, while those who lost were โ0.1, which is the reverse of the bounce-back story.
At the bottom of the chart, the under-30% underdogs were below forecast whether they won or lost, at โ2.9 and โ1.9 points. That points to the very weakest teams being slightly overrated by the ratings in general, rather than to anything the upset itself caused.
View the data: next-game gap to forecast: upset vs expected result
| After upset result | After expected result | |
|---|---|---|
| Fav 55-60% | +1.8 pts | โ0.4 pts |
| Fav 60-65% | โ0.1 pts | +1.9 pts |
| Fav 65-70% | +1 pts | +0.5 pts |
| Fav 70%+ | โ1.7 pts | โ0.7 pts |
| Dog Under 30% | โ2.9 pts | โ1.9 pts |
| Dog 30-35% | โ0.1 pts | 0 pts |
| Dog 35-40% | 0 pts | โ0.2 pts |
| Dog 40-45% | โ1.3 pts | โ0.4 pts |
My reading is that the rating forecast is the right anchor. The noise around it is similar whichever way the last game went.
Aftermath ยท 04Venue splits the upset winners in opposite directions
The table separates the next game by venue, and this is the most useful view in the file. Beaten 60%+ favourites barely moved either way: 60.1% at home against a forecast of 60.6%, and 47.7% away against 47.0%.
Underdog winners are different. Going home next, they won 50.2% against a forecast of 53.1%, a gap of โ2.9 across 1,572 games. Going on the road, they won 41.0% against 39.1%, a gap of +1.9 across 1,810 games. The home return looks over-rated and the road trip looks under-rated.
| Trigger | Games | Forecast | Won next | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite 60%+ lost | 3,387 | 54.5% | 54.5% | 0.0 |
| โฆ next game at home | 1,851 | 60.6% | 60.1% | โ0.5 |
| โฆ next game away | 1,536 | 47.0% | 47.7% | +0.7 |
| Underdog under 40% won | 3,382 | 45.6% | 45.3% | โ0.3 |
| โฆ next game at home | 1,572 | 53.1% | 50.2% | โ2.9 |
| โฆ next game away | 1,810 | 39.1% | 41.0% | +1.9 |
One honest limit applies to all of this: there are no bookmaker prices in the record, so the forecast is a rating estimate, and a real market can sit somewhere else entirely. The venue split is a reason to check the price, not a verdict on it.
What happens next
- Ignore the bounce-back narrative
Beaten 60%+ favourites won 54.5% next time against a 54.5% forecast. Pay for the team's rating and goaltending, not for its anger.
- Fade upset winners returning home
Underdogs under 40% who won and then played at home took 50.2% against a forecast of 53.1%. If the home price leans on that win, it is worth questioning.
- Respect the road underdog
The same upset winners going away won 41.0% against a 39.1% forecast. Compare the line with your own number before writing them off.
Questions bettors ask
Do NHL favourites bounce back after an upset loss?
They win at their usual rate, not above it. Favourites priced at 60%+ who lost won 54.5% of their next games, exactly in line with the 54.5% rating forecast.
Do NHL underdogs keep winning after an upset?
Not beyond expectation. Underdogs under 40% who won took 45.3% of their next games against a forecast of 45.6%, and the biggest long shots under 30% fell to 37.7% against 40.6%.
Does venue matter after an NHL upset?
For the underdog winners it seems to. Playing at home next they won 50.2% against a 53.1% forecast, while away they won 41.0% against a 39.1% forecast.
I write ice hockey previews from a Scandinavian perspective, with deep focus on goaltending, special teams, and the line matchups that quietly decide most games.
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